23 March 2007

Observing Location	VP
Observational Period	1000-1015 EST
Atmospheric Conditions	Cloud Cover Clear Temperature 50°F Wind Calm Humidity Low Feels Like very pleasant Transparency Good Seeing I
Instruments	Brunton 8x21 compact binocular w/Welco gold shade 14 welder's filter - Charlie
Observing Party	Charlie Ridgway

Target Sunspots Constellation Psc Category Solar Time yyyymmdd.hhmm 20070323.1000 EST Comments Distance Light Time 0.9 AU 8ms Angular Size 32'" Altitude ° Heliographic Latitude (B0) -6.91° Heliographic Longitude (L0) 91.00° Position Angle (P) -25.61° Carrington rotation number (CR) 2054 Nothing seen.   Groups Spots R North 0 0 0 South 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 R = (Groups * 10) + Spots)

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A British university has developed software to determine the most likely place for a small (<1km) asteroid to impact the earth and the likely consequences. It sounds like the earthquake and hurricane impact software the US government has developed with the addition of considering the problem from a worldwide perspective and adding in the likelihood of the event happening. The top ten countries at risk are:

• China
• Indonesia
• India
• Japan
• United States
• Philippines
• Italy
• United Kingdom
• Brazil
• Nigeria

I can understand China, India, the United States and Brazil being on the list just because of their sheer size. But then why aren't Canada, Russia and Australia also on the list. China, Indonesia, India, Japan and the Philippines are all fairly close to each other so that makes some sense, but then some other nearby countries should also be included to fill in the gaps. But Italy and the United Kingdom (unless you also the rest of the Commonwealth Realms: Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Jamaica; The Crown Dependencies: the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man; and the overseas territories: Bermuda, Gibraltar, Pitcairn and the Falkland Islands.) are tiny in comparison to the rest of the countries on the list, and they and and Nigeria are outliers geographically.

Base map from Houghton Mifflin Education Place, my colorization The article doesn't say if the countries are listed in rank order but I assume they are since they are not in alphabetical order or size order.

Greatest Population Loss	Greatest Economic Impact
China Indonesia India Japan United States	United States China Sweden Canada Japan

The change in the order that the countries are listed leads me to believe that they are probably listed in rank order although that is not stated in the article. It is interesting that Sweden and Canada appear in the list of most highly impacted countries economically while they don't make the master threat list. A factor in the ranking is the number of times a country would be impacted and Canada does already have a large number of known impact crater sites.

I have not been able to find any information about the paper presented other than the press release form the college listed below.
New research tool indicates those countries most at risk of 'small' asteroid impact