7 December 2006

Observing Location	VP
Observational Period	1115-1130 EST
Atmospheric Conditions	Cloud Cover Clear Temperature 55°F Wind Calm Humidity Low Feels Like Comfortable It is a beautiful day out there right now but the temperatures are supposed to plummet tonight and there may be snow showers. They are even saying temperatures will remain below freezing all day Friday. Transparency Excellent Seeing I
Instruments	Canon 15x50 IS binocular w/Baader AstroSolar filter film - Charlie
Observing Party	Charlie Ridgway

Target Sunspots Constellation Oph Category Solar Time 20061207.1115 EST Comments Heliographic Latitude (B0) +0.05° Heliographic Longitude (L0) 59.14° Position Angle (P) +13.48° Carrington rotation number (CR) 2050 Group 926 is no longer visible and Group 927 is foreshortened and appears smaller, but Group 929 is more than making up for then. I was not able to see 929 without magnification.   Groups Spots R North 1 1 11 South 1 3 13 Total 2 4 24 R = (Groups * 10) + Spots) Group 927 Heliographic Latitude -10° Heliographic Longitude 12° Mcintosh System Axx This group is hard on the western limb and was not easily located. It is foreshortened, looking mush smaller than yesterday and more like penumbra than umbra. Group 929 Heliographic Latitude 3° Heliographic Longitude 128° Mcintosh System Dao The spot is large and is surrounded by an asymmetric penumbra and a broad region of facula. The arm that had been extending out horizontally is gone although there is one small spot where its far end was. The penumbra still extends down in what was my dagger blade yesterday and there is a spot in it. The bulk of the spot remains at the top where the umbra looks fairly round with more penumbra on one side than on the other.

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The weather forecast is deteriorating for tonight.

Clear Sky Clock graphic
NOAA graphic

I am going to need more clothes if I am going to get to observe it and am thinking that it might be time to reactivate my subway observatory. It is close to the house so time efficient and bits me altitude and a lower horizon. It might also be a good location for tomorrow's early morning STS pass followed about 30 minutes later by ISS.

I emailed the Hall of Science Amateur Radio Club last night to inquire about the possibility of their rebroadcasting Space Shuttle radio communications on their Repeater. The idea met with an enthusiastic reception from the guy who actually administers their EchoLink and IRLP nodes so I am hoping to be able to hear the launch tonight.

The weather in Florida sounds like it is worse than it is here and may postpone the Space Shuttle launch tonight. There are other launch opportunities Tomorrow and next Sunday-Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. The weather looks even worse for tomorrow so if they don't get off the ground today the next realistic launch date will probably be Sunday, 10Dec06. All of these launches are scheduled to be night launches so we still have an opportunity to see the launch if our weather also cooperates. Here is a listing of the possible future launch times.

• Dec. 8, 9:13 p.m. EST
• Dec. 10, 8:25 p.m. EST
• Dec. 11, 7:59 p.m. EST
• Dec. 13, 7:11 p.m. EST
• Dec. 15, 6:23 p.m. EST
• Dec. 17, 5:35 p.m. EST

The viewing guide at Space.com says all the specifics for sighting the Shuttle will remain the same no matter which date they launch, so for NYC that reads:

Closest Approach	Max Altitude	Azimuth/Direction
T + 8.5 minutes	8.0-degrees	129.6-degrees (SE)

In the press:

• BBC: Possible Weather Delay
• Space.com: First Night Launch
• Space.com:Viewing Guide

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Observing Location	Parkchester/E177 St. elevated subway platform, #6 Line, Bronx, NY
Observational Period	2105-2145 EST
Atmospheric Conditions	Cloud Cover Broken Clouds Temperature 35° F Wind 24 mph gusting to 35 mph Humidity Low Feels Like Wind chill 21° F It was clear to the south and west where I needed to are and there was a stripe of clouds obscuring the eastern horizon. There was a great Moon up above the clouds that I was thinking I should go out to observe, but there was also a great wind out there. Transparency Good Seeing
Instruments	Canon 15x50 IS binocular - Charlie
Observing Party	Charlie Ridgway

Target STS-116 - Space Shuttle Discovery Launch Constellation Category Satellite Time 20061207.2135 EST Comments Not Seen All afternoon the local weather at the Cape kept fluctuating between acceptable (green/go) and a violation of the rules (red/no go), spending most of its time in the red. Late in the evening it went green and they were hoping that it would hold and improve. At the last built in hold, at T -5 minutes, the weather officer said range weather had gone to red again. They remained in the hold until the last second when they would have to resume the count to launch within this launch window, hoping it would clear. I know they can stop the count any time up to the last seconds, but, given the weather history today, and the trend they are in, it seems like a big gamble to me. If it had, miraculously, cleared, chances are better that it would have clouded over again before they launched or before they got turned around and back on the ground in an RTLS - Return-To-Launch-Site. On top of that, the weather has been below requirements at all of the transatlantic emergency landing sites. Abort maneuvers (from the mission press kit). ATO - Abort-To-Orbit Partial loss of main engine thrust late enough to permit reaching a minimal 105 by 85 nautical mile orbit with orbital maneuvering system engines. TAL - Transatlantic Abort Landing Loss of one or more main engines midway through powered flight would force a landing at either Zaragoza, Spain; Moron, Spain; or Istres, France. For launch to proceed, weather conditions must be acceptable at one of these TAL sites. RTLS - Return-To-Launch-Site Early shutdown of one or more engines, and without enough energy to reach Zaragoza, would result in a pitch around and thrust back toward KSC until within gliding distance of the Shuttle Landing Facility. For launch to proceed, weather conditions must be forecast to be acceptable for a possible RTLS landing at KSC about 20 minutes after liftoff. AOA - Abort Once Around An AOA is selected if the vehicle cannot achieve a viable orbit or will not have enough propellant to perform a deorbit burn, but has enough energy to circle the Earth once and land about 90 minutes after liftoff The Hall of Science Amateur Radio Club plans to rebroadcast Shuttle transmissions but it appears that they hadn't gotten it all figured out yet and there was nothing on the repeater. I was able to hear enough of the rebroadcast from a college in NJ to find out that the weather had gone south during the T -5 hold and that the launch had been scrubbed. The mission is now scheduled to launch Saturday at 2047 EST, and should be visible here around 2055 EST. There are no ISS visible passes until the last few days of the STS mission so it is unlikely, although not impossible, that there will be any STS visible passes until then either. The Space.com article referenced below says that any launch has only a 10% chance of liftoff on it's scheduled day. It costs NASA up to $1m in fuel and overtime each time they scrub a mission. The reactants have to be removed from the external tank and then reloaded just before launch and the fuel cells that produce electricity have to be recharged so there is electricity on board to extend the mission if required by problems or poor weather at the landing sites. And there are thermal stresses on the tank and its foam insulation as the gases expand and cool the tank on detanking and heat the tank when it is pressurized during the next fueling. I can't imagine that those stresses help reduce the risk of foam cracking and shedding. And now they are going to launch at night when their newly installed onboard camera systems, which are supposed to visualize any foam being shed during launch, won't work. Nor will the astronauts be able to photograph the external tank ad it falls away after being jettisoned. The launch window runs through 17Dec06. The actual launch window for this mission extends beyond that time but NASA has shortened it because, and this is inconceivable to me, the computers on board the shuttles are not capable of rolling over from one year to the next while in flight. Even my PDAs can do that, and deal with Leap Year and Daylignt Saving Time too. They think they have a workaround for the problem but don't want to try it while the shuttle is in free flight (they want it either at the ISS or on the ground). So if they do have to extend the launch window to keep Discovery aloft over the new year rollover they will keep them at the ISS during that critical time. I wonder if they get double time and a half if they are up over a holiday. In the press: Bravenet.com Headline News Service: Shuttle launch scrubbed at last minute BBC: Shuttle night lift-off postponed Space.com: Space Shot Delayed: Weather Prevents Shuttle Discovery Launch